A 34-0 win would normally be enough to win over the NFL betting markets, but the New Orleans Saints and their Week 6 odds aren’t drawing action ahead of a non-conference clash with the Houston Texans.
NFL odds opened New Orleans as big as a 2.5-point road favorite following their one-sided win over New England in Week 5, but the early money has been on host Houston. That’s slimmed this spread to as low as NOLA -1 at some sportsbooks.
I dig into the adjustment for the spread and Over/Under total for this Sunday showdown and give my best free NFL picks and predictions for Saints at Texans on October 15.
Saints vs Texans odds
Saints vs Texans predictions
Texans second-year running back Dameon Pierce had a slow start to the 2023 season but is starting to pick up steam as the Texans enter Week 6.
Pierce, who posted rushing yard totals of just 38, 31 and 31 yards in the first three weeks, has gone for gains of 81 and 66 yards on the ground the past two outings with his carries climbing significantly in those contests.
He ran for 20 and 24 attempts the past two weeks after getting 11, 14, and 15 carries in the three games prior. Pierce is still averaging less than three yards per run, but the offense is working toward upping its output on the ground against the Saints.
“We’re very close in the run game,” Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans told the media. “We’ll stay after it. It’s where we want to be. We know we can get better there, and we will show improvement there.”
One thing Ryans highlighted was the game of musical chairs on the Texans offensive line, which has impacted the run blocking for Pierce. There have been five different looks across the o-line, but tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard returned last week, providing needed consistency in this new zone-blocking scheme from offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik.
“Continuity will help,” Ryans told reporters, “but I definitely feel like our run blocking has been there and guys have done a much better job throughout the past couple of weeks of finishing – no matter who’s in there.”
New Orleans entered 2023 with issues stuffing the run, allowing 130.5 rushing yards per game last season. So far, the Saints have slammed the door, sitting No. 2 in EPA allowed per handoff and second in opponent success rate on the ground.
That run defense and Pierce’s past production has his rushing yards total at a modest 48.5 Over/Under for Week 6 after opening at 50.5 yards.
Pierce’s player projections for this matchup are well north of that number with models calling for at least 62 yards with a ceiling closer to 80 yards from some sources. My number isn’t as bullish, but has Pierce pegged for just shy of 70 yards rushing.
With bodies back on the offensive line and the offense emphasizing the run, I like Pierce to pick up enough gains on the ground to go Over his rushing yards prop at home this Sunday.
My best bet: Dameon Pierce Over 48.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Saints vs Texans same-game parlay
Dameon Pierce Over 48.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud Over 0.5 interceptions Under 42.5
+800 at DraftKings
Pierce picks up enough yards on the ground with the O-line intact and his player projections all calling for more than 60 yards.
C.J. Stroud faces a sneaky Saints secondary and the plus-money on the Over 0.5 INTs is getting too high to ignore.
It’s a Saints game. So we’ll ride their Under run until the wheels fall off.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Saints vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis
The offseason odds had the Saints laying a field goal in Houston in Week 6 while the look-ahead lines (before the events of Week 5) listed New Orleans as a 1-point chalk.
However, in the wake of the Saints’ 34-0 squash of the New England Patriots and the Texans losing a close 21-19 outing at Atlanta last weekend, oddsmakers officially opened New Orleans as big as -2.5 on Sunday night.
It didn’t take long for that spread to slim, with early play on Houston right out of the gate. By Monday evening, the Saints were down to -1.5 and as of Thursday morning, are as low as 1-point faves for Sunday’s game.
My power ratings produced an unadjusted line closer to Saints -5, but there are a few factors bringing this spread down besides play on the home team.
For one, this is a tough situational spot for NOLA, which plays back-to-back road games in Week 6 and four road games in five outings — all crammed into a 27-day window. There are also several injuries up and down the roster to starters, especially on offense.
The Texans exceeded expectations in the opening weeks of the season. While Houston sits 2-3 SU on the year it has covered in three of those first five games, with notable wins over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh.
The play of rookie quarterback Stroud has been the catalyst for this ATS success, with the first-year passer showing pose and patience beyond his year. Stroud is ninth in passer rating and sits third in total yardage, with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The Saints will be a solid test for the rookie, given the New Orleans secondary ranks No. 6 in EPA allowed per dropback and limits foes to a 39.9% success rate when throwing the football. The Saints could also be the team to finally pick Stroud off, coming into Week 6 with seven interceptions on the season so far.
Houston’s defense, on the other hand, has been solid enough to keep the Texans competitive. It sits middle of the pack in a number of advanced defensive metrics, but has caved in some other key measurements like third-down defense (28th).
Those third-down situations will be a vital part of how this non-conference clash is decided, as the Saints have struggled to convert on those key downs. New Orleans is 22nd in third down conversion rate and went 5-for -5 on third down in the win over the Patriots.
The Over/Under total for this game hit the board at 41 points on Sunday night and has jumped as high as 43 at some shops.
This move comes despite an incredible run of Unders for New Orleans, which has stayed below the closing total in all five games in 2023 and in 11 straight outings, going back to Week 12 of 2022.
Houston enters this game at 2-3 Over/Under on the season, having stayed below the total in the past two games. The Texans have run a quicker pace on offense this season, ranked fifth fastest in terms of seconds per play and seventh in plays per game.
